On today’s episode of the Washington Monthly Politics Livestream, the editors break down what’s inside Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill”—and why it might be the most self-sabotaging legislation the GOP could pass. From Medicaid cuts and renewable energy rollbacks to a tax system rigged for the ultra-wealthy, the bill manages to hit Trump’s own voters hardest. Plus: the stunning rise of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani in New York, and why the Iran strike may have done more to expose American weakness than deter nuclear escalation.
Their conversation is below, edited for clarity:
Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” — What’s in It and Why It’s So Unpopular
Anne Kim: Welcome. It’s June 30, and today is D-Day in the Senate for Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.” It’s his signature domestic package—massive in scope and price. It extends the 2017 tax cuts—mostly benefiting the wealthy—and adds $3.3 trillion to the deficit. But it also hits Trump’s base hard, with cuts to Medicaid, SNAP, and more. Bill, you’ve been covering this.
Bill Scher: The Medicaid cuts are devastating—and politically insane. Thom Tillis even called it out on the Senate floor: Republicans promised not to cut Medicaid, and here they are. This bill breaks nearly every GOP talking point—no more nine-page bills, no time to read it, everything shoved into one package. It even undermines the filibuster by barring the parliamentarian from reviewing key budget violations.
Anne: And the trick they’re using is calling soon-to-expire tax cuts “current policy,” so they can extend them without counting the cost in official budget scores.
Bill: Exactly. It’s a loophole that opens the door to massive future deficits. And for what? A bill that’s deeply unpopular—even among Republicans.
Anne: The Medicaid work requirements are another example. They’re really just paperwork traps. People will lose coverage not because they’re not working, but because they can’t navigate the red tape.
Paul Glastris: Right. It’s a flood of new bureaucracy for the working poor. Someone juggling part-time jobs across multiple employers now has to collect documentation constantly. And they’ll just give up. Same goes for SNAP. Plus, they’re killing Biden’s direct-file tax system—a simple way for millions to file taxes without stress.
Anne: States will likely hire private contractors to enforce compliance—like Georgia did after the 1996 welfare reform. That effort wasted millions and didn’t help anyone find work.
Paul: And while Trump brags about helping the working class, this bill actually cuts funding for vocational education. That was one of the few promises that appealed to working-class voters.
Bill: He consolidated 11 workforce programs into one “Make America Skills Again” grant—but slashed the total funding by a third. He also proposed a short-term Pell Grant for trade programs, but the parliamentarian threw it out. The rhetoric doesn’t match the policy. It’s nickel-and-diming, not helping.
Matt Cooper: Don’t forget renewables. Republicans used to say they supported “all of the above”—drilling, nuclear, wind, solar. But this bill goes after green energy hard. Texas has become the Saudi Arabia of wind, and solar is the cheapest energy in history—but this bill penalizes it, even geothermal and nuclear.
Paul: And they’re doing it with gimmicks: if your solar array has a single Chinese component, you lose your tax credit. Meanwhile, oil rigs are exempt. This will raise electric bills, especially in red states like Wyoming. Politically, it’s baffling.
Anne: There’s also a raft of anti-immigrant provisions: taxing remittances, cutting hospital reimbursements for emergency immigrant care, and spending $90 billion on detention and wall funding.
Paul: Taxing remittances is especially cruel. It hits immigrant families directly. And for what? A rounding error in the budget.
Bill: The immigrant-bashing is expected. What’s surprising is how many provisions quietly target the GOP base. Some of it seems like frantic scrambling for savings—last-minute cuts that haven’t been thought through.
Anne: Like eliminating the “de minimis” rule for imports—no more tax-free Shein hauls. Or ending Medicaid eligibility for people whose homes are worth more than $1 million. That sounds like it targets the wealthy, but in coastal states, it could affect long-time homeowners and their spouses.
Paul: And all of this is being done to extend tax breaks for the top 1%. Estate tax relief, pass-through loopholes, you name it. Politically, there’s very little upside.
Will the Bill Pass by Trump’s July 4 Deadline?
Anne: Trump wants this passed by Independence Day. Realistically—can Republicans pull it off?
Matt: Maybe. No one wants to be blamed for killing it. But now that it’s bouncing back to the House, there’s real resistance. The House sees this as toxic.
Bill: It might not even pass the Senate. Rand Paul and Thom Tillis are out. If Murkowski or Collins balk—and Collins has bad poll numbers—it could fall apart. And even if it clears the Senate, some House Republicans are now revolting over the deeper Medicaid cuts.
Zohran Mamdani Defeats Cuomo: A Harbinger for Democrats?
Anne: In NYC, DSA-backed Zohran Mamdani beat Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic mayoral primary. He ran on rent freezes, free bus service, and public grocery stores. Is this the future of the party?
Matt: I wouldn’t say Mamdani-style socialism is about to sweep the country. The center of gravity is still with moderates like Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger. But Mamdani’s win shows discontent with the establishment. His platform—rent freezes, free buses, public grocery stores—resonated, especially with young voters.
And there’s real frustration with party leaders being too cautious, especially on affordability and Gaza. Mamdani’s victory shows how the left is gaining traction in cities—and that anti-Israel views aren’t political suicide anymore.
Paul: Young voters are furious. They feel locked out of housing, trapped in low-paying jobs, and failed by free-market solutions. Mamdani taps into that energy. Even if his math doesn’t add up, he reflects a real sentiment in the party.
Matt: There’s also an overreaction happening. Some rich New Yorkers are fleeing to Palm Beach, convinced Mamdani’s going to nationalize Merrill Lynch. But mayors still answer to bond markets. Even Bernie Sanders had to balance budgets in Burlington.
Paul: And Mamdani’s platform overlaps interestingly with both the abundance liberals and the anti-monopoly left. He wants to cut red tape for small businesses and help local entrepreneurs—ideas that could unite different factions of the Democratic coalition.
Iran Strike Fallout
Anne: Finally, let’s talk Iran. After last week’s U.S. strike on nuclear sites, new reports suggest the attack only delayed Iran’s program by months—despite Trump claiming it was “obliterated.”
Matt: We don’t know the full picture yet. But this much is clear: Trump pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal, which had unprecedented inspections. That gave Iran a head start. Now he’s back with a failed military strike, hoping for a different outcome.
Bill: The irony is that Republicans mocked Obama’s deal for having a sunset. But if Trump’s strike only delays things by a few years, it’s no better—and arguably worse, because now Iran has greater incentive to build a bomb.
Paul: And if these bunker busters didn’t do deep damage, that’s a strategic loss. For years, our ability to threaten underground facilities was part of our deterrence. Now the world knows that may have been a bluff.
What We’re Watching
Matt: SCOTUS just ruled that lower courts can’t issue nationwide injunctions. I’m watching how aggressively the administration moves to enforce its repeal of birthright citizenship.
Paul: That ruling, and others, are nudging us toward an autocratic interpretation of the Constitution.
Bill: I’m on Supreme Court retirement watch. If Alito or Thomas want to step down while the GOP still controls the Senate, this is their window.
Anne: And don’t forget—Trump’s 90-day tariff pause ends Tuesday. We’ll see if it’s Taco Tuesday… or Tariff Tuesday.
Thanks for watching. See you next week.
